MyDD :: Survey USA: Obama favorability at 38%

Survey USA: Obama favorability at 38%

by katmandu1, Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 02:23:03 PM EST

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=81b5fdd3-fbda-4580-8169-3a89e9 f40a05

That's the bad news for Obama fans.

The good news is that Hillary's is 35%; McCain is at 34%; our Salamander-in-Chief has a whopping 22% positive rating; the evil dingbat VP, aka Dick Cheney, is at 15%. Fortunately, they can all look down their garlic noses at Eliot Spitzer, who earned a 4% rating. Four percent. That's like the "mistake" vote in any election. But he's at 7% among males! The women did him in -- 2%.

It is interesting that this poll has such a large number of people who feel neutral or have "no impression." I would surmise that this means the electorate is fluid, or they're adopting a wait-and-see attitude.

Tags: Obama, Clinton, McCain, Bush, 2008 (all tags)

Permalink :: 42 Comments :: Post a Comment

Or phrased another way... (2.00 / 1)

Obama's favorability tops both Clinton and McCain

by Bob Johnson on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 02:24:30 PM EST

But the Precious One is now only 3% above... (2.00 / 2)

the Monster? Hmmmm, wonder what he's being doing wright lately?

by Shazone on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 02:38:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

'Obama must implode! Obama must implode!' (2.00 / 1)

"Please, God, make Obama implode!"

"Bosnia? What in the devil are you talking about?"

by Bob Johnson on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 02:42:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 'Obama must implode! Obama must implode!' (2.00 / 6)

How are you doing today sweetness?

Fight for Democrats in Congress.

by owl06 on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 02:48:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'll miss her when she's gone. (none / 0)

by Bob Johnson on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 02:49:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'll miss her when she's gone. (2.00 / 3)

What a quilty sentiment.

Fight for Democrats in Congress.

by owl06 on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 02:53:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: But the Precious One is now only 3% above... (2.00 / 4)

you Wright mean over the past 20 years? I'm just a typical white person - can someone else answer?

Fight for Democrats in Congress.

by owl06 on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 02:42:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: But the Precious One is now only 3% above... (2.00 / 2)

That's funny.

Gallup has him at 50% versus her 42%.

Hooray for John McCain!

by ragekage on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 02:48:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Can Precious Get to Mount Doom (2.00 / 3)

in time, or will Hillary carry away the ring? Stay tuned.

Another Hillary Supporter for Obama!

by Beltway Dem on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 02:56:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Or phrased another way... (2.00 / 1)

Gee, it's a landslide.

This doesn't surprise me at all. All the months when people kept harping on Hillary's supposed high negatives, I knew it was simply because she is very well-known. Once Obama is well-known, his negatives go up and his positives go down.

It's just the way of things. No surprise here.

by Montague on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 02:45:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I have been told here by a number of folks... (2.00 / 1)

... that Hillary's negatives were very unlikely to go higher because she was a "known quantity."

That prediction has proved to be wrong. Her negatives can still go higher as this poll and the NBC/WSJ poll proved this week.

by Bob Johnson on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 02:48:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I have been told here by a number of folks... (2.00 / 1)

it all depends on who you sample, doesn't it?

Fight for Democrats in Congress.

by owl06 on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 02:49:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You're not still holding on to that.... (2.00 / 1)

... Taylor Marsh/linfar sampling lunacy are you?

They were wrong. Now, granted, they don't understand how pollsters work, but the purposeful ignorance displayed by a number of folks after having the methodology clearly explained is breathtaking.

And humorous.

by Bob Johnson on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 02:55:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You're not still holding on to that.... (none / 0)

Actually, their methodology is still very flawed. They do not use a random probability sample - more of a convenience sample.

Cross tabs - oh my!

Fight for Democrats in Congress.

by owl06 on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 03:10:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Uh-huh. (2.00 / 1)

You and Taylor Marsh are now recognized experts on polling methodology.

I bet Gallup got it wrong today, too.

by Bob Johnson on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 03:17:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Uh-huh. (none / 0)

I'm glad that is settled. ;-)

Fight for Democrats in Congress.

by owl06 on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 03:22:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I have been told here by a number of folks... (2.00 / 2)

Numbers bounce up and down all the time through an election season. It's just like people who say that Hillary had a 30-point lead in December or some such thing. That was because she was known the best. There was no surprise at all that the number changed as people started paying attention to the primary and to the various candidates.

The bottom line is that it's possible neither Hillary nor Barack can win a general election against McCain, but Hillary has the better shot at it. And she'd make a better president than Obama, too.

So go, Hillary!

by Montague on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 03:00:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Either Obama or Clinton will crush McCain. (2.00 / 1)

He is a weak candidate in a very, very bad year for Republicans.

He's the second coming of Bob Dole (no pun intended about Mr. Viagra).

by Bob Johnson on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 03:16:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Either Obama or Clinton will crush McCain. (none / 0)

If that is true, and I hope it is, how do you explain McCain's current big lead over both in polls?

by TomP on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 03:28:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

What 'big lead?' (none / 0)

I don't know where you're getting that:

RealClearPolitics Election 2008 National Head-to-Head Polls

RCP Average -- McCain vs. Obama -- Obama +0.5%

RCP Average -- McCain vs. Clinton -- McCain +0.7%

McCain doesn't hold a "big lead" over either Dem. And I suspect he will only drop. Iraq and the economy will kill him.

by Bob Johnson on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 03:33:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Tom, even at pollster.com.... (none / 0)

... McCain's leads are not large:

McCain vs. Clinton

McCain 46.8%
Clinton 44.7%

McCain vs. Obama

McCain 46.2%
Obama 43.5%

by Bob Johnson on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 03:51:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Depends which polls (none / 0)

you look at.

Reality-based went bye-bye a long time ago.

by TomP on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 05:56:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Reality-based is looking at the poll averages. (none / 0)

Being a "sky-is-falling" pessimist means looking only at the polls where McCain is winning handily.

by Bob Johnson on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 08:26:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Not Dole (none / 0)

No, he certainly is not Dole. McCain has a lot more chutzpah than Dole ever did. The problem is that so many people have a really high opinion of McCain. Dole never got anybody excited (with or without the aid of Viagra), but McCain's been given the title of maverick and straight talker, deserved or not (and I think it's undeserved).

He isn't a weak candidate, although he might appear to be. To think so invites hubris and eventual loss to the so-called weak candidate.

by Montague on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 08:57:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The electorate is..... (2.00 / 2)

SICK IF IT ALL. Heh. Fun times ahead.

It's an election, not an auction.

by cosbo on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 02:26:02 PM EST

Re: The electorate is..... (none / 0)

For real.

Poll Headline:

"America's voters: All of you just go away already"

by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 02:28:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA: Obama favorability at 38% (none / 0)

It is interesting that this poll has such a large number of people who feel neutral or have "no impression."

I imagine it has more to do with how they questioned people.

by animated on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 02:26:43 PM EST

Hmmm... (none / 0)

This disagrees with almost every other poll on the subject, it would be interesting to see what differs.

by Obama08 on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 02:27:17 PM EST

Re: Hmmm... (2.00 / 1)

Hasn't SUSA been one of the best polling outfits this election season?

by Montague on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 02:55:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hmmm... (none / 0)

On the head-to-heads, yes. These ratings disagree with all others though, so I need to see more on their methodology.

by Obama08 on Mon Mar 31, 2008 at 01:34:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA: Obama favorability at 38% (none / 0)

wait wait why is it bad that of all the people you listed, including the current president, the VP, his opponent in the primaries and the GE,

out of all of them Obama has the highest favorability rating and this is bad?

I am dizzy from the spin.

Congratulations to Barack Obama, the presumptive Presumptive Democratic Nominee

by TruthMatters on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 02:27:32 PM EST

Re: Survey USA: Obama favorability at 38% (none / 0)

I was trying to be humorous; I don't know what kind of spin I'd put on it if I were serious.

But here's a new one. Among Demo primary voters, according to Rasmussen today,

Some pundits have begun floating the possibility of Al Gore as a compromise nominee to end the Obama-Clinton struggle. Gore is viewed favorably by 76% of Democratic Primary Voters, Obama by 70%, and Clinton by 67%.

But to confound matters more, when actually put head to head ---

The national telephone survey of 423 Likely Democratic Primary Voters shows Obama attracting 42% support while Clinton earns 26% and Gore is the top choice for 23%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/election_20082/2008_pres idential_election/gore_not_answer_to_dem _divide

by katmandu1 on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 02:36:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The problem with such head to head polls (none / 0)

is that Gore is not running. If someone asked me if I supported Obama, Clinton, or Gore, I would say Obama - even though I would switch to Gore if he entered the race (not likely at this stage.)

There have been a few polls that included the qualifying statement 'if Al Gore runs, would you vote for him?' And those polls have showed much higher support levels for him, which makes sense in my opinion.

John McCain

by MILiberal on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 03:25:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA: Obama favorability at 38% (none / 0)

This is of a piece with all the other polls that show Obama has the best favorable-unfavorable ratings of the three. Something in their methodology gives them much more negative numbers than Gallup or Ramussen, but since this is a contest between these three people, what matters is not Obama's absolute popularity but the fact that he is more popular than the other two.

The Washington Post gave Mrs Clinton four Pinocchios for [the sniper story], which is like three Michelin stars, only for lying. -- The Economist

by BITNPB on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 02:27:55 PM EST

Re: Survey USA: Obama favorability at 38% (none / 0)

So, 38% is worse than 35%? Bad for Obama, and good for Hillary? Triple SNARK!

by Spanky on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 02:36:38 PM EST

My favorite poll result of all time (2.00 / 1)

http://www.boingboing.net/2007/10/26/pol l-about-belief-in.html

Below is my favorite poll of all time. Though it is reported at BoingBoing, I've seen it reported at serious places like Pollingreport.com.

According to a new Associated Press/Ispos poll of 1,013 adults in the US, approximately one out of three people believe in ghosts, 19 percent in spells or witchcraft, 48 percent in ESP, and 34 percent in UFOs. Meanwhile, 23 percent claim to have "seen or believed (they) were in the presence of a ghost," 14 percent say they have sighted a UFO, and only five percent have "seen a monster in the closet of (their) bedroom." [Boing Boing comment -- The low positive response to that last question is probably because the poll did not inquire about monsters seen under the bed, which is where the 82 percent of bedroom monsters actually reside. ]

From the Associated Press:

One in five say they are at least somewhat superstitious, with young men, minorities, and the less educated more likely to go out of their way to seek luck. Twenty-six percent of urban residents -- twice the rate of those from rural areas -- said they are superstitious, while single men were more superstitious than unmarried women, 31 percent to 17 percent...

Generally, women were more superstitious than men about four-leaf clovers, breaking mirrors or grooms prematurely seeing brides. Democrats were more superstitious than Republicans over opening umbrellas indoors, while liberals were more superstitious than conservatives over four-leaf clovers, grooms seeing brides and umbrellas.

by katmandu1 on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 02:45:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I don't understand this poll, sorry (none / 0)

these numbers make no sense

Bring Back MyDD - Just say No to Rec'ing Candidate Diaries.

by CardBoard on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 02:43:12 PM EST

Did you notice the age weighting? (2.00 / 1)

The heaviest weighted age block in the sample was under age 34. The oldest was only 15%. Those are not the weights we have seen in the primary so far.

Obama is rated pretty favorably by the youngest block but unfavorably by all others. This extra weight on the youngest block inflate Obama's ratings and deflate Clinton and McCain's.

by lombard on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 02:51:08 PM EST

Notice some key factors-Age and region compositi (2.00 / 0)

Total Adults surveyed: 1000; margin of error 3.2%
We don't know if these are registered voters, likely voters, or just adults in general.

Gender split: 48% Male, 52% Female - roughly accurate as to voting public.

Age split: 32% 18-34; 28% 35-49; 25% 50-64; 15% 65+.
No way is the 18-34 age bracket represented with over twice as many voters as the 65+ voters in any election; I can't speak to the percentages in the 35-49 and 50-64 groups, but I would believe that that they should be at least equal in numbers.

The regional breakdowns in this survey also heavily favor The South - what's that about?

I haven't followed the various survey groups closely, but recollect that SUSA results have been thought inaccurate before.

Is this survey worthy of comment re accuracy?

by susie on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 02:55:43 PM EST

Re: Survey USA: Obama favorability at 38% (2.00 / 1)

Haha. He still beats McCain and HRC.
Even more importantly he does excellently in the West where he needs to do well and better amongst Latino's than McCain.
Very good news.

McCain: The Past, Obama: The Future

by KathyM on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 03:14:23 PM EST

Re: Survey USA: Obama favorability at 38% (none / 0)

This isn't really a surprise, considering the back and forth between the two candidates. What is surprising is that McCain, who is currently running against no one and facing no attacks, is lower than both of them.

This administration is not sinking. This administration is soaring! If anything, they are rearranging the deck chairs on the Hindenburg!

by venavena on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 03:15:39 PM EST

Re: Survey USA: Obama favorability at 38% (none / 0)

I think we are all tired of these polls that are all over the place and nothing concrete that any of us can count on before the next bunch of contests. It's best to sit back now and see what happens, instead of relying on a few polls that make absolutely no sense right now.

Steven Shaman Publisher Skywatch-Media News

by steve468 on Fri Mar 28, 2008 at 06:11:09 PM EST

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